No association of a risk variant for severe COVID-19 with HIV protection in three cohorts of highly exposed individuals.

An extended haplotype on chromosome 3 is the major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19. The risk haplotype, which was inherited from Neanderthals, decreases the expression of several cytokine receptors, including CCR5. Recently, a study based on three general population cohorts indicated that the minor allele of one of the variants in the haplotype (rs17713054) protects against HIV infection. We thus expected this allele to be over-represented in highly exposed individuals who remain uninfected (exposed seronegative individuals, ESN). To perform a meta-analysis, we genotyped rs17713054 in three ESN cohorts of European ancestry exposed to HIV through different routes. No evidence of association was detected in the single cohorts. The meta-analysis also failed to detect any effect of the variant on protection from HIV-1. The same results were obtained in a Cox-regression analysis for the time to seroconversion. An in-vitro infection assay did not detect differences in viral replication as a function of rs17713054 genotype status. We conclude that the rs17713054 minor allele is not associated with the ESN phenotype and does not modulate HIV infection in vitro.

Disease-causing human viruses: novelty and legacy.

About 270 viruses are known to infect humans. Some of these viruses have been known for centuries, whereas others have recently emerged. During their evolutionary history, humans have moved out of Africa to populate the world. In historical times, human migrations resulted in the displacement of large numbers of people. All these events determined the movement and dispersal of human-infecting viruses. Technological advances have resulted in the characterization of the genetic variability of human viruses, both in extant and in archaeological samples. Field studies investigated the diversity of viruses hosted by other animals. In turn, these advances provided insight into the evolutionary history of human viruses back in time and defined the key events through which they originated and spread.

Dating the Emergence of Human Endemic Coronaviruses.

Four endemic coronaviruses infect humans and cause mild symptoms. Because previous analyses were based on a limited number of sequences and did not control for effects that affect molecular dating, we re-assessed the timing of endemic coronavirus emergence. After controlling for recombination, selective pressure, and molecular clock model, we obtained similar tMRCA (time to the most recent common ancestor) estimates for the four coronaviruses, ranging from 72 (HCoV-229E) to 54 (HCoV-NL63) years ago. The split times of HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43 from camel alphacoronavirus and bovine coronavirus were dated ~268 and ~99 years ago. The split times of HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-NL63 could not be calculated, as their zoonoticic sources are unknown. To compare the timing of coronavirus emergence to that of another respiratory virus, we recorded the occurrence of influenza pandemics since 1500. Although there is no clear relationship between pandemic occurrence and human population size, the frequency of influenza pandemics seems to intensify starting around 1700, which corresponds with the initial phase of exponential increase of human population and to the emergence of HCoV-229E. The frequency of flu pandemics in the 19th century also suggests that the concurrence of HCoV-OC43 emergence and the Russian flu pandemic may be due to chance.

Dating the Emergence of Human Endemic Coronaviruses

Four endemic coronaviruses infect humans and cause mild symptoms. Because previous analyses were based on a limited number of sequences and did not control for effects that affect molecular dating, we re-assessed the timing of endemic coronavirus emergence. After controlling for recombination, selective pressure, and molecular clock model, we obtained similar tMRCA (time to the most recent common ancestor) estimates for the four coronaviruses, ranging from 72 (HCoV-229E) to 54 (HCoV-NL63) years ago. The split times of HCoV-229E and HCoV-OC43 from camel alphacoronavirus and bovine coronavirus were dated ~268 and ~99 years ago. The split times of HCoV-HKU1 and HCoV-NL63 could not be calculated, as their zoonoticic sources are unknown. To compare the timing of coronavirus emergence to that of another respiratory virus, we recorded the occurrence of influenza pandemics since 1500. Although there is no clear relationship between pandemic occurrence and human population size, the frequency of influenza pandemics seems to intensify starting around 1700, which corresponds with the initial phase of exponential increase of human population and to the emergence of HCoV-229E. The frequency of flu pandemics in the 19th century also suggests that the concurrence of HCoV-OC43 emergence and the Russian flu pandemic may be due to chance.

Homology-based classification of accessory proteins in coronavirus genomes uncovers extremely dynamic evolution of gene content.

Coronaviruses (CoVs) have complex genomes that encode a fixed array of structural and nonstructural components, as well as a variety of accessory proteins that differ even among closely related viruses. Accessory proteins often play a role in the suppression of immune responses and may represent virulence factors. Despite their relevance for CoV phenotypic variability, information on accessory proteins is fragmentary. We applied a systematic approach based on homology detection to create a comprehensive catalogue of accessory proteins encoded by CoVs. Our analyses grouped accessory proteins into 379 orthogroups and 12 super-groups. No orthogroup was shared by the four CoV genera and very few were present in all or most viruses in the same genus, reflecting the dynamic evolution of CoV genomes. We observed differences in the distribution of accessory proteins in CoV genera. Alphacoronaviruses harboured the largest diversity of accessory open reading frames (ORFs), deltacoronaviruses the smallest. However, the average number of accessory proteins per genome was highest in betacoronaviruses. Analysis of the evolutionary history of some orthogroups indicated that the different CoV genera adopted similar evolutionary strategies. Thus, alphacoronaviruses and betacoronaviruses acquired phosphodiesterases and spike-like accessory proteins independently, whereas horizontal gene transfer from reoviruses endowed betacoronaviruses and deltacoronaviruses with fusion-associated small transmembrane (FAST) proteins. Finally, analysis of accessory ORFs in annotated CoV genomes indicated ambiguity in their naming. This complicates cross-communication among researchers and hinders automated searches of large data sets (e.g., PubMed, GenBank). We suggest that orthogroup membership is used together with a naming system to provide information on protein function.

Computational Inference of Selection Underlying the Evolution of the Novel Coronavirus, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

The novel coronavirus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that recently emerged in China is thought to have a bat origin, as its closest known relative (BatCoV RaTG13) was described previously in horseshoe bats. We analyzed the selective events that accompanied the divergence of SARS-CoV-2 from BatCoV RaTG13. To this end, we applied a population genetics-phylogenetics approach, which leverages within-population variation and divergence from an outgroup. Results indicated that most sites in the viral open reading frames (ORFs) evolved under conditions of strong to moderate purifying selection. The most highly constrained sequences corresponded to some nonstructural proteins (nsps) and to the M protein. Conversely, nsp1 and accessory ORFs, particularly ORF8, had a nonnegligible proportion of codons evolving under conditions of very weak purifying selection or close to selective neutrality. Overall, limited evidence of positive selection was detected. The 6 bona fide positively selected sites were located in the N protein, in ORF8, and in nsp1. A signal of positive selection was also detected in the receptor-binding motif (RBM) of the spike protein but most likely resulted from a recombination event that involved the BatCoV RaTG13 sequence. In line with previous data, we suggest that the common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and BatCoV RaTG13 encoded/encodes an RBM similar to that observed in SARS-CoV-2 itself and in some pangolin viruses. It is presently unknown whether the common ancestor still exists and, if so, which animals it infects. Our data, however, indicate that divergence of SARS-CoV-2 from BatCoV RaTG13 was accompanied by limited episodes of positive selection, suggesting that the common ancestor of the two viruses was poised for human infection.IMPORTANCE Coronaviruses are dangerous zoonotic pathogens; in the last 2 decades, three coronaviruses have crossed the species barrier and caused human epidemics. One of these is the recently emerged SARS-CoV-2. We investigated how, since its divergence from a closely related bat virus, natural selection shaped the genome of SARS-CoV-2. We found that distinct coding regions in the SARS-CoV-2 genome evolved under conditions of different degrees of constraint and are consequently more or less prone to tolerate amino acid substitutions. In practical terms, the level of constraint provides indications about which proteins/protein regions are better suited as possible targets for the development of antivirals or vaccines. We also detected limited signals of positive selection in three viral ORFs. However, we warn that, in the absence of knowledge about the chain of events that determined the human spillover, these signals should not be necessarily interpreted as evidence of an adaptation to our species.

Evolutionary history of type II transmembrane serine proteases involved in viral priming.

Type II transmembrane serine proteases (TTSPs) are a family of trypsin-like membrane-anchored serine proteases that play key roles in the regulation of some crucial processes in physiological conditions, including cardiac function, digestion, cellular iron homeostasis, epidermal differentiation, and immune responses. However, some of them, in particular TTSPs expressed in the human airways, were identified as host factors that promote the proteolytic activation and spread of respiratory viruses such as influenza virus, human metapneumovirus, and coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. Given their involvement in viral priming, we hypothesized that members of the TTSP family may represent targets of positive selection, possibly as the result of virus-driven pressure. Thus, we investigated the evolutionary history of sixteen TTSP genes in mammals. Evolutionary analyses indicate that most of the TTSP genes that have a verified role in viral proteolytic activation present signals of pervasive positive selection, suggesting that viral infections represent a selective pressure driving the evolution of these proteases. We also evaluated genetic diversity in human populations and we identified targets of balancing selection in TMPRSS2 and TMPRSS4. This scenario may be the result of an ancestral and still ongoing host-pathogen arms race. Overall, our results provide evolutionary information about candidate functional sites and polymorphic positions in TTSP genes.

Adaptation of the endemic coronaviruses HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E to the human host.

Four coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-229E) are endemic in human populations. All these viruses are seasonal and generate short-term immunity. Like the highly pathogenic coronaviruses, the endemic coronaviruses have zoonotic origins. Thus, understanding the evolutionary dynamics of these human viruses might provide insight into the future trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Because the zoonotic sources of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E are known, we applied a population genetics-phylogenetic approach to investigate which selective events accompanied the divergence of these viruses from the animal ones. Results indicated that positive selection drove the evolution of some accessory proteins, as well as of the membrane proteins. However, the spike proteins of both viruses and the hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) of HCoV-OC43 represented the major selection targets. Specifically, for both viruses, most positively selected sites map to the receptor-binding domains (RBDs) and are polymorphic. Molecular dating for the HCoV-229E spike protein indicated that RBD Classes I, II, III, and IV emerged 3-9 years apart. However, since the appearance of Class V (with much higher binding affinity), around 25 years ago, limited genetic diversity accumulated in the RBD. These different time intervals are not fully consistent with the hypothesis that HCoV-229E spike evolution was driven by antigenic drift. An alternative, not mutually exclusive possibility is that strains with higher affinity for the cellular receptor have out-competed strains with lower affinity. The evolution of the HCoV-OC43 spike protein was also suggested to undergo antigenic drift. However, we also found abundant signals of positive selection in HE. Whereas such signals might result from antigenic drift, as well, previous data showing co-evolution of the spike protein with HE suggest that optimization for human cell infection also drove the evolution of this virus. These data provide insight into the possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, especially in case the virus should become endemic.

The substitution spectra of coronavirus genomes.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has triggered an unprecedented international effort to sequence complete viral genomes. We leveraged this wealth of information to characterize the substitution spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 and to compare it with those of other human and animal coronaviruses. We show that, once nucleotide composition is taken into account, human and most animal coronaviruses display a mutation spectrum dominated by C to U and G to U substitutions, a feature that is not shared by other positive-sense RNA viruses. However, the proportions of C to U and G to U substitutions tend to decrease as divergence increases, suggesting that, whatever their origin, a proportion of these changes is subsequently eliminated by purifying selection. Analysis of the sequence context of C to U substitutions showed little evidence of apolipoprotein B mRNA editing catalytic polypeptide-like (APOBEC)-mediated editing and such contexts were similar for SARS-CoV-2 and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus sampled from different hosts, despite different repertoires of APOBEC3 proteins in distinct species. Conversely, we found evidence that C to U and G to U changes affect CpG dinucleotides at a frequency higher than expected. Whereas this suggests ongoing selective reduction of CpGs, this effect alone cannot account for the substitution spectra. Finally, we show that, during the first months of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread, the frequency of both G to U and C to U substitutions increased. Our data suggest that the substitution spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 is determined by an interplay of factors, including intrinsic biases of the replication process, avoidance of CpG dinucleotides and other constraints exerted by the new host.

One year into the pandemic: Short-term evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and emergence of new lineages.

The COVID-19 pandemic was officially declared on March 11th, 2020. Since the very beginning, the spread of the virus has been tracked nearly in real-time by worldwide genome sequencing efforts. As of March 2021, more than 830,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes have been uploaded in GISAID and this wealth of data allowed researchers to study the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during this first pandemic year. In parallel, nomenclatures systems, often with poor consistency among each other, have been developed to designate emerging viral lineages. Despite general fears that the virus might mutate to become more virulent or transmissible, SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity has remained relatively low during the first ~ 8 months of sustained human-to-human transmission. At the end of 2020/beginning of 2021, though, some alarming events started to raise concerns of possible changes in the evolutionary trajectory of the virus. Specifically, three new viral variants associated with extensive transmission have been described as variants of concern (VOC). These variants were first reported in the UK (B.1.1.7), South Africa (B.1.351) and Brazil (P.1). Their designation as VOCs was determined by an increase of local cases and by the high number of amino acid substitutions harboured by these lineages. This latter feature is reminiscent of viral sequences isolated from immunocompromised patients with long-term infection, suggesting a possible causal link. Here we review the events that led to the identification of these lineages, as well as emerging data concerning their possible implications for viral phenotypes, reinfection risk, vaccine efficiency and epidemic potential. Most of the available evidence is, to date, provisional, but still represents a starting point to uncover the potential threat posed by the VOCs. We also stress that genomic surveillance must be strengthened, especially in the wake of the vaccination campaigns.

Antigenic variation of SARS-CoV-2 in response to immune pressure.

Analysis of the bat viruses most closely related to SARS-CoV-2 indicated that the virus probably required limited adaptation to spread in humans. Nonetheless, since its introduction in human populations, SARS-CoV-2 must have been subject to the selective pressure imposed by the human immune system. We exploited the availability of a large number of high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes, as well as of validated epitope predictions, to show that B cell epitopes in the spike glycoprotein (S) and in the nucleocapsid protein (N) have higher diversity than nonepitope positions. Similar results were obtained for other human coronaviruses and for sarbecoviruses sampled in bats. Conversely, in the SARS-CoV-2 population, epitopes for CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were not more variable than nonepitope positions. A significant reduction in epitope variability was instead observed for some of the most immunogenic proteins (S, N, ORF8 and ORF3a). Analysis over longer evolutionary time frames indicated that this effect is not due to differential constraints. These data indicate that SARS-CoV-2 evolves to elude the host humoral immune response, whereas recognition by T cells is not actively avoided by the virus. However, we also found a trend of lower diversity of T cell epitopes for common cold coronaviruses, indicating that epitope conservation per se is not directly linked to disease severity. We suggest that conservation serves to maintain epitopes that elicit tolerizing T cell responses or induce T cells with regulatory activity.

Recombination and Positive Selection Differentially Shaped the Diversity of Betacoronavirus Subgenera.

The Betacoronavirus genus of mammal-infecting viruses includes three subgenera (Sarbecovirus, Embecovirus, and Merbecovirus), in which most known human coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2, cluster. Coronaviruses are prone to host shifts, with recombination and positive selection possibly contributing to their high zoonotic potential. We analyzed the role of these two forces in the evolution of viruses belonging to the Betacoronavirus genus. The results showed that recombination has been pervasive during sarbecovirus evolution, and it is more widespread in this subgenus compared to the other two. In both sarbecoviruses and merbecoviruses, recombination hotspots are clearly observed. Conversely, positive selection was a less prominent force in sarbecoviruses compared to embecoviruses and merbecoviruses and targeted distinct genomic regions in the three subgenera, with S being the major target in sarbecoviruses alone. Overall, the results herein indicate that Betacoronavirus subgenera evolved along different trajectories, which might recapitulate their host preferences or reflect the origins of the presently available coronavirus sequences.

SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: A genetic, epidemiological, and evolutionary perspective.

In less than five months, COVID-19 has spread from a small focus in Wuhan, China, to more than 5 million people in almost every country in the world, dominating the concern of most governments and public health systems. The social and political distresses caused by this epidemic will certainly impact our world for a long time to come. Here, we synthesize lessons from a range of scientific perspectives rooted in epidemiology, virology, genetics, ecology and evolutionary biology so as to provide perspective on how this pandemic started, how it is developing, and how best we can stop it.

Coding potential and sequence conservation of SARS-CoV-2 and related animal viruses.

In December 2019, a novel human-infecting coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was recognized in China. In a few months, SARS-CoV-2 has caused thousands of disease cases and deaths in several countries. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that SARS-CoV-2 clusters with SARS-CoV in the Sarbecovirus subgenus and viruses related to SARS-CoV-2 were identified from bats and pangolins. Coronaviruses have long and complex genomes with high plasticity in terms of gene content. To date, the coding potential of SARS-CoV-2 remains partially unknown. We thus used available sequences of bat and pangolin viruses to determine the selective events that shaped the genome structure of SARS-CoV-2 and to assess its coding potential. By searching for signals of significantly reduced variability at synonymous sites (dS), we identified six genomic regions, one of these corresponding to the programmed -1 ribosomal frameshift. The most prominent signal of dS reduction was observed within the E gene. A genome-wide analysis of conserved RNA structures indicated that this region harbors a putative functional RNA element that is shared with the SARS-CoV lineage. Additional signals of reduced dS indicated the presence of internal ORFs. Whereas the presence ORF9a (internal to N) was previously proposed by homology with a well characterized protein of SARS-CoV, ORF3h (for hypothetical, within ORF3a) was not previously described. The predicted product of ORF3h has 90% identity with the corresponding predicted product of SARS-CoV and displays features suggestive of a viroporin. Finally, analysis of the putative ORF10 revealed high dN/dS (3.82) in SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses. In the SARS-CoV lineage, the ORF is predicted to encode a truncated protein and is neutrally evolving. These data suggest that ORF10 encodes a functional protein in SARS-CoV-2 and that positive selection is driving its evolution. Experimental analyses will be necessary to validate and characterize the coding and non-coding functional elements we identified.